Planning, monitoring and evaluation system 

Estimation as part of the PME 

Estimation is measures designed in order to estimate the outcome of a project in relation to the planned objectives and influences.

Kinds of estimations
When we talk about estimation it is usually an external estimation which is most often initiated and deduced by a factor/and out of the project. However, the estimation can be “just estimation” or internal estimation initiated by the organization itself.

In relation to the time when the estimation is carried out, there is current estimation, which is built in and carried out during the project itself and final estimation which is deduced once at the end of the project.

When the final estimation is carried out, it should be considered that most often the end of the project carries with itself a new project or continuation of the previous one as such. Therefore, the final estimation should take into consideration the consecutive activities, too.

The final estimation can be described as a process of collecting information and establishing criteria which lead to the following:
·    Evaluation of what has been done;
·    Explanation how it happened;
·    Better planning of the future projects.
 
Why should we estimate?
Estimation is a powerful tool for planning and especially for improving our capabilities, our projects and our activities. It should also be understood as a basic tool in some processes whose objectives are some social changes, because the main strong side of the estimation is in our preparation to do things better than we did in the past. Generally, we should estimate because:

·    We want to learn further and to develop our capacities and skills;
·    We want to check what has been done as a result of our efforts and actions;
·    We want to consolidate and evaluate the learned;
·    We want to check how effective we are;
·    We want to see where we can improve ourselves;
·    We want to impel people to studying and development processes. 

What do we estimate?
Estimation of a project can be carried out in relation to:

-         relevancy: to which extent the project’s objective meets the needs and priorities of the target group?;
-         effectiveness: to which extent has the project’s objective been reached?;
-         efficiency: whether the assets have been optimally used?;
-         influence: what wider effects has the project realized?; and
-         sustainability: is it possible the positive effects from the project to continue after it finishes?.

While estimating we consider the situation in relation to what has been reached with the project, both directly and indirectly. We should estimate the achieved results, pointing out the ones which had been planned from the ones which had not been planned, but happened.

During the final estimation it is natural to compare the results with the original objectives which have been set at the beginning of the project, of course, had they been concrete and measurable. The more concrete the objectives were, easier it would be to estimate them. The estimation will display to which extent they have been achieved. A lot of objectives by definition are difficult to measure, even to estimate. Therefore, it is important to define measurable objectives in the phase of defining the project. In this way, while presenting the estimation, we will have figures/quantitative indicators which should support the qualitative estimation.

During the estimation, the process through which the results have been achieved, should be taken into consideration. Then the results become “edifying” and are some gained experience in certain field. In order to notice and understand this, it is necessary to estimate the process through which the people passed while planning and managing the project. In that sense the estimation should answer the following questions: What was to be done differently? What could be learned about planning the project and the management? What could the people learn through the process of implementing the project? 

Preparation and estimation
The estimation is carried out in several phases:

Preparation
The estimation preparation is above all setting its intentions and objectives: why is estimation necessary? Who needs it? Who should be involved in carrying it out?

Designing
Once we explain the estimation’s intention, we should define the objectives, that is, what is going to be estimated (using resources, used methods, results, influence, etc.). These objectives will determine the indicators and the criteria (qualitative, quantitative).

Collecting information
After the indicators and criteria have been set, the next process is actually getting the necessary information/data (e.g. how many people took part, what they have learned, what they did after that, etc.).

Interpreting information
What does the data or information we have mean? Interpretation, as well as the following phases are the most difficult challenge during the estimation: objectivity. Reality can always be interpreted in different ways and people can always influence the estimation carried by their own interests and worries. It is basic to exist an awareness of the need to be objective.

The interpretation can be easier (and show the way towards conclusions) if the information can be compared with some other experiences of same nature.

Evaluation and conclusions
Evaluation is actually a process of making some relevant conclusions from the received information. It looks for the reasons for what has happened, emphasizing the results and putting them in perspective of the original objectives of the project.

Results application
All the necessary information and conclusions from the estimation are, in some way, meaningless if nothing is done with them. The estimation’s function to lead to a change is lost if there is not a desire for changes, if there is not a desire to admit the results from the estimation. The resources of resistance to changes can be numerous (institutional, personal, political, etc.). The organization should strive for overcoming them.

 

Prepared by: Sunchica Sazdovska
Resource: Project Management T-KIT, Council of Europe & European Commission